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I am sure that most Americans are quite excited about the tax rebates that may be coming soon this year due to a major economical stimulus package. What is lesser known about this package is that it will also raise the “conforming” mortgage loan limit from $417,000 to $729,750 in high priced regions until the end of this year. This means that government sponsored enterprises such as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will be able to purchase loans as large as $729,750, and any loan under this limit will not be a jumbo loan. Basically, people will be able to borrow more money and pay less interest. Who is cheering for this change and why? More importantly, how will you be affected?

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What I found interesting is that the National Association of Realtors put out an about this move stating that “NAR’s research found that simply increasing the loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to $625,000 would permit as many as 300,000 families to enter the housing market, reduce foreclosures by as many as 210,000 and allow as many as 500,000 jumbo loan borrowers to refinance to lower cost loans, saving these people $274 to $411 a month.” On the other hand, that “the director of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), which is the governing body over America’s government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), warned the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee this week about expanding the GSEs’ ability to take on jumbo loans without first having the appropriate stipulations and regulatory structures in place.”

Who should we believe? The glowing report of an association of realtors who have lobbied for the change or the director of a branch of the government that has been tracking housing prices and demographics for more than three decades? I personally believe that the director of OFHEO’s opinion is prudent and logical. With bigger loans, the government sponsored enterprises will be taking on more risk, and if these agencies are destablized by more risky debt then the entire economy could collapse even further.

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The best case senario I see is that nothing really happens and very few loans get funded under the new limit. These few homeowners will benefit from the lower rate and keep on paying their bills. Hopefully, the paltry number of these homeowners will not affect the housing market in any significant way. The prices of houses continue to decline for a while making homes more affordable and lowering the need for jumbo loans. Basically, the best we can hope for is that nothing changes.

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Unfortunately, I think it is possible that this footnote to the stimulus package could have a devastating effect on the current mortgage crisis. First, it may prolong the bubblicious prices in California and the Northeast. Right now I am reading many stories where offers on homes fell through because of the lack of financing. Considering the fact that the average price of shacks in my neighborhood is $700k to $800k, most of these buyers are trying to secure jumbo loans. Once this package goes through, financing will be possible, and the prices on the shacks will not come down as quickly. Even though this higher limit is only in effect for one year, it is possible that more speculators and fraudsters will get into the market and drive prices up even higher. After all, it only took about two years (2004 to 2006) for home prices to double in many parts of California. You may say that this is not a problem for the rest of America, but if Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae become insolvent because of more risky debt, then all Americans will have to pay dearly with mandatory bailouts. Then we can kiss that tax rebate and even more money goodbye.

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I am not an expert, but I firmly believe that what we need is more affordable homes, and not larger loans. So it is probalby best if the limit was left alone and the ridiculous prices fell back down to earth. I think it is ludicrous that the “conforming” loan limit is being lifted more than $300,000 in this package in the blink of an eye considering that it took a span of 23 years for the loan limit to go up from $115k to $417k. Is more debt really good for Americans? What do you think should happen?

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So there is chatter in the news the government worked out a deal with major banks to freeze the adjustable rates on mortgages of many subprime borrowers. The rules are, the loan has to be originated from the beginning of 2005 to July 30th of 2007 and the rate is set to reset in 2008 to 2010. The subprime borrower also have to have a good payment history and live in the home to qualify. So I thought I would do an non-expert analysis on who benefits the most in this situation.

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The biggest winner is the banks that made these loans. Some of the teaser rates for these subprime loans are as high as 8%, so I don’t think the banks are hurting much by collecting a rate thats 16 times the average of national banks interest payout on savings accounts. Additionally, by keeping the borrowers in their homes, the banks do not have to deal with an asset that has depreciated in value. Basically, the banks are saving and earning billions by keeping subprime borrowers up to date with their debt.

The next big winner in this situation is the government. Why? One word: taxes. By keeping these stretched homeowners in their homes the government can continue to collect property taxes. Additionally, since the mortgage rates are not rising the homeowners will have less mortgage interest to deduct on their taxes and that means more tax revenue for the government than they would have had otherwise.

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I don’t consider the homeowners who keep their homes in this plan to be winners. Sure, they get to keep their home, but many of them are so financially stretched that almost their entire income is going to the banks and that is a very stressful situation. In fact, if they weren’t financially stretched, they wouldn’t qualify for the program. This is Secretary Paulson’s outline of the plan:

Paulson offered a general outline of the plan on Monday. He identified four groups of subprime borrowers facing rate increases on their adjustable-rate loans: Those who cannot afford their payments even at the current rate; those who could afford payments at the higher rate; those can refinance into a “sustainable mortgage while keeping investors whole;” and those who can afford their mortgages today but could not at the higher rate.

Only the fourth group would get help.

These homeowners are just indentured servants to a gargantuan money hungry force. Their rates will be frozen for five years, but they will have to keep on paying the price on an asset that has depreciated greatly with all that they have.

 

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I would count myself amongst “The Angry” because I think the plan is unfair to most consumers and Americans in general. I don’t own a home, but I know many people who took out reasonable fixed rate loans at higher rates than these subprime borrowers, only to see irresponsible behavior rewarded. Additionally, as Paulson said, “those who could afford payments at the higher rate” will not get help. How is that fair? I suppose life just isn’t fair. I think this plan, and other mortgage related bailouts are just further discouraging people from saving money, and living a sustainable lifestyle. I also think the subprime borrowers who had absolutely no equity in their homes would do better just to walk away, save some money and buy a home for a much cheaper price. I know it’s not that easy, but we can’t continue to support this manipulated bubble economy.

Quote Source: San Francisco Chronicle 12/6/2007 This article is a great read that echos some of my thoughts.

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Ecclesiastes is probably my favorite book in the Bible because it is a little bit cynical, and at the same time full of hope and faith. It’s a book that matches my personality very well and it has quite a few acute observations about human nature and wealth. Whenever I feel discontent about my career or wealth I read this book and it really puts things in perspective. Here I will highlight some timeless verses from the book, with my comments on how they relate to me.
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This is the main topic of Ecclesiastes. What do we gain from working and living? In other words, why are we here? What do we get for working for most of our lives? I think everyone asks this question once or twice.

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This verse can be interpreted to mean that history repeats itself and we only think that something is new because we no longer remember that it happened or existed before. For me, it means that there is no point for me to participate in fads and fashions and purchase the most popular and flashy thing. This verse is especially true for technology products, because people are trying to reinvent the wheel all the time, and many companies and products are very quickly forgotten.

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The entire second chapter of Ecclesiastes is great reading because it shows that rich people aren’t necessarily happy. The author (who is usually believed to be King Solomon) set out to accumulate great wealth and he successfully gathered a fortune that was above all who were before him in Jerusalem. (Ecc 2:9) Yet he says cheapest viagra buy cheap viagra Ecc 2:17-19 In these verses the author realizes that he can’t take his wealth with him when he dies, and he has collected so much just to give it to others. This is true of anyone with too much wealth. Bill Gates and Warren Buffet are great examples. They’ve worked their entire lives just to give their enormous wealth to others. Additionally when people make too much money they also pay large amounts of taxes, which is also distributed to others. I don’t think leaving your wealth to others is necessarily a bad thing, but what really struck a chord with me is verse 19 when the author questions whether the receiver of his hard earned fortune is a “wise man or a fool”. At this very moment my tax dollars are being spent on mortgage bailouts, the war in Iraq, and probably ten thousand other issues that I consider foolish, but what can I do about it? Some hope and answers are offered in chapter 3.

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These chapter offers encouragement that God has a plan for everything, but God is eternal and timeless so that we don’t know what he has already done for us. It also encourages me to have patience, because eventually I will experience God’s work.

Chapter 3 also has this verse, which is a good verse for those who hate their jobs:

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These chapters are mostly about all the people that are not satisfied with what they have. It’s a little comical in some parts.

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Verse 4 sums up what we call today “keeping up with the Joneses”, and basically says that labor driven by envy is pretty pointless. Verse 5 is sometimes also translated as “The fool folds his hands and eats his own flesh”, which means that some people are so lazy that they don’t work at all and end up eating themselves. I thought that was funny because my mom told me of a story once of an extremely lazy child who died from starvation even when his mom put a giant pie on his head. This verse reminded me of that story. The opposite of these fools are people are those who work for a lot more than they need, and they’re the ones who have “two handfuls” in verse 6. This brings to mind of those people who bought “McMansions” only to work two jobs to keep their homes. So it is best to be at the middle ground which is work and earn the “handful” I need and be happy with it.

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I have met people like this who really have way more money they can spend, but still isn’t satisfied. A good example is my company’s CEO whose networth is probably a few hundred million, but he is single and still works to 2am sometimes. I can’t say if he finds it miserable, but I probably would find it fairly depressing if all I had in my life was work. For me, two are definitely better than one, and I wouldn’t trade my hubby for a few hundred million dollars.

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I think these verses give the answer to why people are always pursuing more money. When I first read this I also thought that he meant those who have more to eat got fatter (increased), and that’s harmful to the wealthy. Then again, not all rich people are fat. I think mostly it means that when you have more money it also becomes harder to manage and there is a fear of losing that wealth. Thus the “abundance” sometimes makes the rich lose sleep. Instead of sleeping they could be working to get more money, or managing their money. So wealth produces more work and stress. I have felt that in my life when I am really afraid that the stock market will tank or maybe someone will just steal everything I own, but what I should really be doing is to enjoy what I have been given. So I am still working on this, so that what I have been given does not become harmful to me.

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The author speaks of a common affliction of the wealthy. There are many who are blessed with all the riches they desire, but are still depressed and conflicted. Just walk into a supermarket and you’ll see tabloids plastered with pictures of celebrities who could buy everything but happiness. Basically, wealth without the power to enjoy it is worthless, and “an alien” would enjoy it instead. I think the alien here means someone you’re unfamiliar with. For example, there are often stories of people who win lotteries and then suddenly random relatives pop out of the woodworks to befriend them. Money sometimes attracts people who aren’t really your friends, and they may enjoy your wealth more than you. If that happens then there is no point to having all that money.

There are a lot more great verses in this book, and I feel grounded when I read it. Ultimately the book says that God gives people all that they have, and if we enjoy what we’re given it is a gift from God. Also, without some sort of afterlife or eternity every bit of wealth we collect here on earth is meaningless and empty.

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