A year ago I wroteabout the government’s plan to freeze mortgage rates and how ridiculous it was. I also suggested that people should just walk away from their gigantic loans and buy something cheaper. A lot has happened since then. There were countless attempts by the government to revive the housing market with very little success, and many people did walk away from their underwater loans and buy cheaper homes. Yesterday, showed that more than 50% of borrowers who received loan modifications end up defaulting again anyway.

When I read the news I thought to myself, “well, what did you expect?” Many of these loan modifications either changed the loan term from 30 years to 40 years or lowered the interest rate, but the borrowers still owe a gigantic debt on a depreciating asset. There is no incentive for them to pay the debt if they can find a place to live in for even less money than the reduced mortgage payment.   Seriously, who would want to pay a $400,000 debt on an asset that is worth only $200,000?

Additionally, all of these loan modifications encourage bad behavior.  The borrowers probably think that if they don’t pay they will be bailed out again because bailouts are all the rage right now.  Everyday the news is reporting some kind of government action to deal with foreclosures.  So if you already got free housing for 3 to 4 month and then got a modification on your loan, then you have another 3 to 4 months until a foreclosure comes.  That’s 6 to 8 months of no housing payments even if there is no second modification, and that seems like a good financial incentive to default.

Another driver in re-defaulting is the worsening economic state of the world.  , and perhaps a lot of people no longer have the amount of income they had when they received the loan modification.  For now, I think the unemployment situation is only going to get worse.

I think the lesson in this is that the government should stop messing with the free market and let foreclosures happen naturally.  These modifications and bailouts are just prolonging the pain for everyone involved.  I suppose that more than 40% of these borrowers are still paying for their modified loans,  but they really  may be better off by renting and saving for a down payment on a cheaper home.  Home prices have come down more than 25% in many parts of the country, and it is slated to go down even further.  It would take a while for a foreclosure to come off someone’s credit report, but that might be the perfect time for that person to build up a sizable down payment.

I think home prices will go down for at least another 4 to 5 years and recover if the government stops with the interventions.  If they continue to manipulate the market through interest rates and loan modifications then it may take the housing market a longer time to recover precisely because the bad apples will still be hanging on.  For example, if a person gets a foreclosure now then  it would take seven years for it to come off their credit report.   So in seven  years this person would be a prime borrower again.  However, if he hangs onto the mortgage through various bank and government deals and then redefaults after two years, then it would take nine years from now for that person to become a prime borrower again.  The sooner people get foreclosed on, the sooner they can rebuild their credit and become suitable homebuyers again.  The housing market will only recover when the demand returns, and I truly believe that  all of these government polices to prevent foreclosure will simply stall the recovery of the housing market.

I am leaving San Mateo for China first thing in the morning tomorrow.  Sorry for the lack of updates but these couple weeks have been insanely busy for me.  We actually still haven’t completely closed on the house because of a bunch of mix ups and confusion.  Hopefully it will be done tomorrow, but I won’t be here to see it.  That sounds pretty precarious and believe me, I have been pulling out my hair for about two days.  I have also been trying to tie up loose ends at work and it has been two extremely chaotic weeks.

I am so glad that I will be leaving on a jetplane tomorrow because I just need to get away from this crazy country for a while and escape to another crazy country.   We will be watching the presidential election through the filter of CCTV.  The hubby already voted early on Saturday, so he is all set.

I will be back early morning of November 14th, but there will be an excellent guest post by in a couple days.   Stay tuned!

So a couple weeks ago I wrote that we entered escrow for my husband’s parents’ home.  Since then, we have locked down a 30 year fixed mortgage at 5.875% with a 0.875% origination fee last week.  Looking back, I am so glad that we locked down the rate because a Our loan has no prepayment penalty so in the unlikely chance that mortgage rates ever sink significantly again we can always refinance.

Additionally, we also got dozens of disclosures, inspection reports, and the appraisal report.  I think the hubby is getting tired of reading all of these forms that explain to us what we’re getting into.  I find the disclosures very helpful, though.  Even though we are buying the home from someone we trust, we still need to know all the problems and issues the property has. I actually found out a lot of things I didn’t know previously about the house.  The hubby was reading the report and found a few surprises, too, but they were mostly minor.

The appraisal report showed six comparable properties and gave an appraised value range of $514k to $550k and I thought that was a fair estimate for the current market, but the appraiser did note in the report that the market could slip down further due to the tightening of credit and the amount of foreclosures in the area.  In fact one of the comparables he used was a bank owned property and it sold for $520k.   We’re technically purchasing it for quite a bit less than the lowest end of the appraisal so we will have some cushioning for the down market.  The good thing about the appraisal is that our lender should accept that the house is worth a lot more than the loan amount we’re seeking and we will not have  to get mortgage insurance.

Next, I did a lot of research into home insurance, and learned quite a bit about building materials and various natural disaster zones.  For example, the home has a concrete tile roof, which is considered one of the most long lasting roofing materials and some insurance companies actually give a discount for that.  The bad news is that the home is in a zone with high incidences of brush fire so a couple insurance companies actually refused to quote me.   In the end I settled with a policy sold by Nationwide, which offered the best balance of coverage and price.  I got more than ten quotes and the range of prices was from $440 to $1200 for varying amounts of coverage. Interestingly enough, the most expensive policy didn’t really cover more than some of the cheaper policies so I guess  it really pays to shop around when you are purchasing any kind of insurance.

Amidst all of this stock market turmoil, I am actually glad that I have this real estate transaction to focus on right now.  We are hoping to close in less than two weeks, and so far things have been going well.  I haven’t met any unscrupulous loan or real estate agents that some people say caused the current crisis.  The loan agent I dealt with was very straightforward and explained everything.  There were also many disclosures that are required by law that tell you what you are responsible for and that the real estate market doesn’t always go up.  So after going through this process I don’t think it’s fair to blame all the real estate professionals on the ground floor for the current meltdown.  A lot of them are people like you and me making an honest living.   Home buyers are really responsible for their own actions and everyone needs to do their due diligence before making any kind of big purchase or investment.
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Lately I haven’t been blogging very much due to a variety of factors, and one big thing that is happening right now is that we are buying a house.  Yes, I know this sounds crazy considering that I have written extensively about why buying a house is more expensive than renting, but there is a good reason why we’re buying this particular house.

To make a long story short,  we are in the midst of purchasing my husband’s parents’ home  at a significant discount.  They are leaving the country to do long term missionary work in the Philippines in January 2009  and their income will no longer support the mortgage they have on the home.  So they were planning to put the house on the open market and sell it, but as you know, the current real estate market is pretty much in the pits and they are not guaranteed to sell the house by the time they leave.  So we decided that it is probably best to keep the house in the family somehow.  My husband really loves the house because he grew up in it and his parents has lovingly put in many improvements over the years.  His parents expressed that they wanted us to live in the house when they leave, but the one problem is that the house is in Southern California and our jobs are here in Northern California.

At first, we were just worried that we couldn’t afford the home, but since his parents agreed to give us a large gift of equity the mortgage will turn out to be about  15% of our gross income and that is pretty affordable. The price we are getting is basically 30% off market value so it is a fairly good deal.  We also found that California has a law called Proposition 58 which allows the present tax value to pass from parent to child so the property taxes will not be reassessed to the current value.  So after crunching the numbers several times, we found that by renting the home out for the current market value for similar homes we are able to pretty much break even.  We plan to keep the house long term as a hedge against inflation, and if his parents decide to return to the United States they could move back to the house they are familiar with and rent it from us.  The house is located in a very good upper middle class neighborhood with median household income of $103,000 per year and elementary school API scores of above 900 so we are pretty confident that we can get some willing renters.

We just entered escrow right now and plan to close by the end of October.  It is sort of sad that we can’t live in the house because we both like it very much, and it is really weird to be a landlord and renter at the same time, but it will definitely be interesting.  For now we are going to rent the home to my husband’s parents, but at the same time we will need to find a renter for the future.  I am learning quite a bit through this experience, and I will certainly write about it later.

The latest news is that Henry Paulson is to let the government take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac completely since the passed in July gave him the power.  This is actually very scary news for many reasons.  Here are some of my thoughts.

First of all,  would be yet since the housing meltdown is not over.  Fannie and Freddie hold over $5 trillion dollars in mortgage loans, and own about as of August 2008.  Since foreclosure numbers are still stacking up the amount of losses Fannie and Freddie will sustain is still going up.  Once the government officially takes over these enterprises taxpayers would be paying for all the loan guarantees and costs to dispose of these foreclosed properties.  Even if the housing market does not worsen, I think it is safe to say that the Treasury will stand to lose billions if they take over Fannie and Freddie

The situation right now is that if the government does not take over Fannie and Freddie then they may not stay open for very long since investors have lost quite a bit of confidence in the mortgaged backed securities spewed by these companies.  The stock prices of these companies have plunged and they’re drowning in billions of losses.  Without Fannie and Freddie’s guarantees on loans, it would be harder for everyone to get loans and home sales will be even slower and that will simply bring about more losses amongst the financial industry.  It is almost like  the government almost has no choice but to step in and stabilize the mortgage and credit market.

Interestingly enough, agree that Fannie and Freddie should not be bailed out since they are supposedly private entities,  but these two government sponsored enterprises have so much influence  and so many loans now that just letting them fail could have a huge impact on the real estate market.    I think it is really bizarre that these two companies were allowed to operate in such a way that they are government sponsored, and yet not carefully regulated to take on sensible risks.  Where was the line drawn?  Now that the crap has hit the fan, taxpayers have to pick up the pieces?

So on one hand, I agree wholeheartedly that Fannie and Freddie need to be restructured by the government for the good of the economy, but will they do it correctly this time?  If the current lending and fraud prevention practices continue, Fannie and Freddie will be nothing but endless money pits where taxpayer money bleeds into oblivion.  If management becomes good and these enterprises become profitable again, where will the money go?  Will taxpayers see any return on the good fortunes of these companies as their former shareholders once did?  Right now, there are so many questions and so little answers, and the big unknown future of Fannie and Freddie is rather frightening.