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Today Goldman Sachs was handed a $450k fine for violating a short selling rule and there is an ongoing civil suit concerning their role in creating and selling a synthetic CDO product called Abacus.   Here is what I think of the whole debacle.

First, let me tell you a little story.  Yesterday my mom called me and told me of an investment property she and my dad were considering.  Apparently the current owners bought two duplexes at the height of the bubble for $500,000 and put $250,000 down, and now these two buildings are listed for $77000 each.  My mom’s comment was, “isn’t this sad?  The hard working folks lost all the money and Wall Street won!” I basically replied to her and asked her what Wall Street won from this particular case.  The lender to the couple will lose money in this deal, and it seems to me that this couple just made a bad investment.  However, the general sentiment now is that all the bankers are to blame for everything ill in this world whether it is true or not.

The folks who bought Goldman’s Abacus product also made a bad investment, and it seems silly for them to complain that Goldman “knew” that the investment will go sour.  Seriously, can you really blame Goldman Sachs for people who do not pay their mortgages?  Did Goldman hold a gun to these people’s heads and force them to sign their loan documents and default?  I think it’s ridiculous to say that Goldman or Wall Street in general knew that the housing crisis was going to happen when almost EVERYONE and their pets’ fleas were caught in the real estate mania and truly believed that real estate prices will never fall. The contention here is that the person who helped create Abacus felt that the underlying investments would go sour so he was on the other side of the bet, but obviously the buyers of Abacus felt that it was a good investment because they would not have bought it otherwise. They also trusted the ratings companies that rated these underlying securities to be awesome. So this case seems like the buyers of these investments are feeling gypped that their bet went wrong.  The fact is that they had access to the data of every underlying security, and it is their fault for not doing their due diligence.

Although I am not a fan of market makers like Goldman Sachs because I feel that they control too much, in this case I think it is ridiculous to try them for fraud.  If they committed fraud because they selected a consultant who believed that the securities would fall, then perhaps all the people that lost money in real estate in recent years should sue the real estate agents of the sellers that they bought their homes from.  Perhaps those real estate agents counseled their clients into selling their homes because they felt that the real estate market peaked, and they gained from the sales financially.  Have they all committed fraud, too?  Goldman is an easy target because there is all this hate against big financial institutions now, but when will people own up to their  mistakes?  All the investors from the Wall Street banks that bought these CDOs to the “Main Street” duplex owners who lost money in the real estate bubble are only here because of their own greed and I am not shedding a tear for any of them.

As to the SEC, it almost seems like they’re trying to show that they are doing something productive after the .  In this case I agree with by selling Abacus.   I don’t know what kind of precedent this case would present to salivating lawyers.  What’s next?  Can anyone with a bearish opinion be sued when proven right?  Will investors start suing blogs like Calculated Risk and Doctor Housing Bubble for “creating” the real estate collapse by writing about their honest opinions about the real estate mania?  Lets be honest here, if the real estate bubble hasn’t popped yet then this lawsuit would not have been brought forth, and I really think that everyone should just accept their wins and losses in this whole madness and move on to better investment opportunities.

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It is sobering to realize that it is now 2010.  It seems not too long ago we were celebrating the first  graduates of the new millennium, and now it has been almost ten years. For many of us, the 2000s is a decade that we would probably like to forget as it was fraught with natural and manmade disasters.  I think becoming a young adult in the last decade has made me more skeptical, vigilant, and perhaps a little more conservative as I witnessed first hand what uncontrolled excess can do to people and the world.  Anyway,  here is my outlook for the 2010s.

I think for many people this is a decade to rebuild what has been lost in the recent past. Of course, I don’t think the economic recovery is anywhere near complete, yet.  There is still a lot of unemployment and the government is still beating the dead horse of loan modifications and refusing to let the foreclosures naturally roll out.  Nevertheless, many folks are getting on with their lives and I personally know many that have become more conservative with their money.  Several friends are also looking to take the opportunity of the dip in housing prices to buy a home, but unfortunately housing prices are still artificially high right now in the Bay Area.  However, I don’t think the prices of these homes and other materials will rise very much in the next five to six years since people are being more conservative with their money, and the sheen of homeownership has faded a bit.

There are talks of hyperinflation, but I doubt it is going to happen in this decade because inflation only happens when there is more money chasing a limited amount of goods.  What is happening now is that people are buying less, and the amount of products that are being manufactured is not really decreasing.  The factories of China, Vietnam, and Costa Rica are still pumping out tons of cheap goods headed for the shores of America, and it seems that these shoes and knickknacks are only getting cheaper.  I doubt that is going to change in this decade, so it is a good time to buy something that will last for a long time while prices are still somewhat depressed.  Once the next bubble happens and people forget what happened in the 2000s, then prices on everything will rise again.  However, that is also hard to imagine because wages have been stagnant for the entire 2000s.  Prices will only rise when people actually have more money in their pockets.  Now that the housing ATMs have dried up, people will need to find a new source of “money” to spend.  I’m not quite sure what that is yet.

Personally, this decade is definitely a new stage in my life since I am now a mom.  So far everything has been going smoothly, but a child goes through a lot of changes in the first ten years of his life, and I am looking forward to seeing
it.  In a few years I will also turn 30, and maybe then I won’t feel so much like a kid anymore.  I guess my attitude towards this new decade is a bit of cautious optimism.  The best thing I could do is make the best of what I have been given.

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In the past couple months a couple of my family members have been making offers on bank owned properties as investments.  Without going into too much detail, they are buying properties with positive cash flow when rented out.   It is harder than it looks, and there are good deals out there.  However, here are some of my thoughts as to why I would not be investing in a rental property.

First of all, it takes a lot of time and energy to find a suitable property that has positive cash flow.  My hubby and I just don’t have the time  or drive to go house hunting right now with a new baby.  My hubby simply thinks it is too much trouble.  When we bought our house from his parents all he did was sign the final mortgage papers, and he thought that was too much trouble.  I cannot imagine how annoyed he would be if we actually went on a house hunt and attended endless open houses.   I am actually glad that we purchased the house he grew up in because that saved us a ton of time and gas  in choosing a house  (and probably saved us some  arguments since I have seen how my parents bought their houses).  Since our assets are combined, there is no point in investing in something that the hubby does not want to deal with.

Second,    it takes quite a bit of cash to buy investment properties these days.  We have very good credit, but there is little chance that we will beat out investors with full cash offers.  I just don’t feel comfortable putting so much cash into a rental property because that would make our investments too heavy on real estate.    It is never good to put all your eggs into one basket.

Basically, we are not really in a very good position  to buy rental property now, but for some people that have a lot of time and money on their hands there are good deals out there since the real estate market tanked so much.  I think these opportunities will stick around for at least a couple more years.   The rental market has gone down in general, but many people are moving out of apartments and moving into single family homes because the rent price on single family homes have gone down.  There are also a lot of people who were foreclosed on renting now, so it is still possible to rent out a property.  The key is to do your research and find something with a positive rate of return, and don’t overextend yourself with too much financing.

Anyway,  I don’t think my husband and I like being landlords because it involves collecting money from real people.  It is great when you have a good, long term tenant, but when you .   It is much easier to just collect interest from a bond or CD because it is a lot less personal.   When you buy stocks and mutual funds you could lose money, but at least you won’t lose your life and your car won’t get keyed.  Actual human beings  are just too unpredictable of an investment.

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I have a friend from college who grew up here in San Mateo.  We often discuss things like and also the ridiculous real estate here on the Peninsula.  He is also a pretty frugal guy who makes a good income.  We often exchange articles about bailouts and real estate and discuss them.  The most hilarious comment I got from him about these articles is, “I want to punch them in the face”.  Here are some examples of folks he wanted to punch in the face.

When CNN featured , my friend said to me, “Are we supposed to feel sorry for these people?  I want to punch them in the face, with the exception of the guy that became disabled”.  I thought the most egregious example of a deadbeat out of the four families is.  This is  a guy that obviously knew that he was walking away as a financial decision.  He actually said that he “landed on his feet in just about every way”.

Here is another guy that my friend would like to punch from the article titled

“The government cannot do anything to make Rafael Aponte’s home affordable.

Aponte has been unemployed for three years since being laid off after 17 years at National Display Co. That is how long he has owned his Northern Liberties rowhouse, now in foreclosure.

Protesting near the National Constitution Center, where a congressional panel yesterday tried to gauge the progress of homeowner-rescue programs, Aponte said his lender had agreed to modify his mortgage, then had withdrawn the offer.

“They said that without a job, how could I pay even that?” Aponte said. “They’re right, but it isn’t fair.” “

I thought that this article was hilarious since the guy admitted that the bank was right that he couldn’t pay, but still complained that it’s unfair.  The article actually went on to say that the mortgage bailout money should have been given directly to the borrowers.  Seriously? I say thank God now that there are banks that are smart enough to deny loans that they know wouldn’t be repaid.  Another precious quote from the above article is the following:

“Getting a homeowner’s DTI [debt-to-income] ratio to 31 percent won’t help the unemployed, since 31 percent of their income is zero,” said Paul Willen, a senior economist and policy adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

This made me laugh pretty hard, too.  When did you learn that 0 multipled by  anything is 0?

If my friend were to be face to face with these folks, I am sure he wouldn’t actually punch them in the face, even though someone needs to knock some sense into them.  What we are frustrated about is that many of these foreclosees are painted as victims in the media and coddled like innocent babes by the politicians.  Yes, the economy is in the pits right now, and many people are unemployed, but that is not an excuse to throw away personal responsibility.   If the government continues to bully banks into making loans to people who they know have no intention or ability to repay those loans, then this situation will not get better.  Unfortunately, that is still what I am seeing.  The banks are still portrayed as the ultimate villains that aren’t helping enough homeowners in trouble.  The truth of the matter is that a lot of these folks, and the modification efforts will just give them a few more months of free housing.

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According to a report based on new Census data, last year the This is worse than the decline of homeownership amongst all the other major ethnic groups.  Some economists quoted in the article were surprised at this development since Asians households in America generally have high income and low debt.   So why has this group dropped out of homeownership the most?

The article suggested that the effect may be regional because most Asians in America live in California, which is one of the states hardest hit by declining prices and the recession.  This is definitely a solid theory.  Asians are not immune to job losses and for many families the loss of even one job means that the  next mortgage payment is no longer affordable.  As I wrote in , Asians often ignore the basic debt to income ratio guidelines to buy a home because they figure they will save money on everything else.  If two people were paying 58% of their income on a mortgage then one job loss definitely puts the nail on the coffin.  California currently has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country, and since the Asian community is concentrated here in California we are affected as a whole.

Next I think the speculative mania during the housing bubble was much more intense amongst the Asian community.  This is just my anecdotal experience, but my whole family and Indian coworkers talked about real estate pretty much 24/7.  These people mostly had significant amounts of savings for a downpayment, great credit, and all they were seeing is that the real estate market went up 20%  a year while stocks were not exactly catching up.   This prompted a lot of people to buy real estate that they did not even need.  Some of them intended to flip the properties quickly, and some became landlords with the intention to flip a bit later.   Another thing that spread the fire is that Asians talk about personal finance amongst family and friends very often so more and more people jumped on the bandwagon.  There are also folks who used their homes as ATMs to buy more property because they figured that they were  making a sound  investment.  For the most part, the Asians I have encountered that did all of these real estate deals knew exactly what they were getting into, and they were all sure that they were being smart about their money.  The phrase I heard the most often were that “real estate prices in the Bay Area will never go down” and “real estate is the best investment”.  I know that many non-Asian people did the same thing, but I feel that the Asian community got into real estate much more because owning real property is high on their priority lists.

Now after the crash, I actually do not personally know any Asian families that lost their homes.  I do know several that are fairly underwater, but they are still faithfully paying their debt because they are still employed.  Believe it or not real estate is still a really hot topic for my parents and their friends.  Now they are all talking about scooping up cheap properties as rental properties.  Now what I hear from my mom is similar to the following, “this property sold for $400,000 in 2005!  Now it’s 70% off! Positive cashflow!!!”.   I responded to her, “mom, remember when I told you a few years ago that real estate could come down by 40% and you didn’t believe me?”  She then said, “It’s more than 40% down!!”   I guess the obsession will never end.      Anyway, I wish them luck, and I hope some of the decline in homeownership was voluntary and not due to foreclosures.

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