First of all, I don’t think this  benefits the Obama administration because they really need to sustain a good relationship with Beijing.  Even though the tire industry is a small part of the trade between the two countries, the Chinese government definitely sees this as a grave insult.  The Chinese commerce minister Chen Deming said that this act is “an abuse of special safeguard provisions and sends the wrong signal to the world”.  Frankly I don’t think it is worthwhile to anger China over a tiny percentage of trade between the two countries just to yield to  some political supporters.

Next, this will probably hurt Americans more than the Chinese. The poultry industry is now on edge because they export tons of chicken feet and wings to China at a premium price.  If China imposes a tariff on them they will lose quite a bit of profit.  The USA Poultry & Egg Export Council expressed that they are “upset with the way this has been handled by the administration“.   The New York Times published a particularly amusing article on this matter which said that the Chinese will still continue to buy the large juicy American chicken feet even if there are tariffs, but Chinese people are also very price conscious so any increase in price will bring consumption down.  The poultry industry is right to be concerned, because those chicken feet are fairly worthless here in America.  Suppose that this tariff protects $1 billion in domestic tires, but loses $2 billion in chicken exports, then American workers still lose as a whole.

Another way this hurts Americans is that the tariffs will increase tire prices.  Most of the Chinese tires are cheap low end products.  American manufacturers such as Goodyear and Cooper manufacture their low end products in China and import them to the United States.    The tariffs on Chinese tires will inevitably increase prices for American consumers who buy the lower end tires.   Additionally, if manufacturers had to increase the price of their low end products they would probably increase the price of their premium products to make their products seem more “premium”, and that means more expensive tires for everyone.Americans are also very price conscious right now, and the higher prices might mean lower sales, and ultimately that might hurt the American tire industry and decrease jobs in that sector anyway.  In that case this protectionist measure would have accomplished the exact opposite of its purpose.

So who really benefits from this?  I think the trade lawyers should be happy because Obama pretty much open the doors for more similar complaints from every other industry.  In Bush 43’s administration four similar industry complaints were rejected because Bush wanted to keep trade free.  Now Obama is sending a signal out there that he is willing to approve protectionist measures for small groups that he favors so more groups may be hiring up lawyers to file complaints because now they have a bigger chance of getting their petitions approved.  Although the complaints are not “expensive” according to this article, whoever files them will be getting a fee. So in the end, I think  the lawyers win.

Ultimately, I highly doubt that this tariff on 0.4% of China’s exports to the United States is going to turn into an all out trade war, but it is certainly making Obama less popular to everyone except the specific unions that he is agreeing to.  Decisions like this affect a lot more than just the people making the complaints, and it is probably wiser to reject them all like Bush did.  That way at least it looks like there are no favorites.

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The hubby and I have not been to a fine dining  restaurant for this entire year  so it was really a fun treat  to go out.  The hubby actually convinced me to go because I was a bit hesitant about spending on my birthday this year with the recession and the coming of the baby.  In reality we are still saving around 50% of our income and neither of us got a reduction in income.  So we could afford to celebrate without worrying.  The hubby was a little apprehensive about the dress code since our experience with Picasso in Las Vegas, but we read some reviews of the Village Pub and found that they allow jeans and shirts.  After all, we are back in Northern California.

On the way to the restaurant the hubby said that if they try to turn us away due to dress then he would say something like, “can you really afford to turn customers away?  In this economic climate?”  When we got there we found that the whole place was packed, and most people were dressed quite well, but there were a few people in jeans and Hawaiian shirts.  The servers were quite prompt with us and there was not a problem even though we showed up in jeans.   The hubby sat down, looked around,  and said, “well, I guess they can afford to turn us away.”  We opened the menu and found that it was not overly expensive.  Each appetizer was a bit under $20, and entrees were between $20 and $40.  So it was possible to eat pretty well for under $75 per person.  So the hubby concluded, “I guess maybe  this is recession dining for the rich.”

We both agreed that we always find the appetizers and desserts the most memorable at these “fancy” places, and The Pub was no different. The hubby had a mushroom and sweetbread salad topped with a poached egg for his appetizer.  I had a shaved foie gras salad with plums.  Both were seasoned just right and the ingredients tasted very fresh.  I had a rack of pork for the entree and the hubby had a spring lamb in three preparations.  I think the hubby’s lamb was better than my pork.  The pork was well cooked and seasoned, but it was a bit boring.  Finally for dessert I had a plate of strawberries prepared in several different ways.  One preparation was in a beignet, one was a frozen bar of strawberry with cream, and then there were a bunch of fresh strawberries on french toast.  It was really a very large dessert.  The hubby had a peach dessert that was prepared like a cobbler and also a frozen manner.  Overall we enjoyed our meal very much and it was a very good birthday for me.

Looking back on the past few months I think we do have a lot of reasons to celebrate.  We both still have our  jobs and a wonderful family and we are also expecting to add a little boy soon enough.  I think that the horrid state of economy and the coming of the baby did add a bit of anxiety to our lives, but when I write it all down it seems that we are worrying for nothing much.   As my old roomie Cathy used to say, “all you need are faith, family, and friends”, and we have all three.

Anyway, I guess what I am trying to say is that I  think everyone who has a reason to celebrate this year should go ahead and do it as long as it is affordable.  There is no point in worrying about things you cannot control, and life really passes by faster than you can enjoy it.

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Apparently many IOUs would be sent to residents who are still owed a tax refund.  Many small businesses that sell to the state will also receive them.  A full list of the various agencies and groups that will be paid with IOUs is here. Right now the large banks such as Bank of America, Chase, and Wells Fargo are willing to cash the IOUs for customers.  However, this only lasts until July 10th, so this means that if you need the money now you better hope that you receive your IOU before then and get it to the bank.

It is also possible to sell the IOU to other lenders and investors.  Afterall, whoever holds the IOU at the time of maturity will collect the interest accrued. There is a risk of default from the state, but I can see some people getting into the business of buying up IOUs from people who need the cash.  Most likely these folks will pay less than the value of the IOU since they want to make a profit.

If you do not need the cash right away it might be best just to hold on to the IOU because the interest accrued is not taxable.  3.75% tax free is a lot better than any CDs and bank accounts out there now, but it really means nothing if you need to pay your bills right now.

I hope that the state gets its act together by July 10th because otherwise many people may have to resort to less safe venues to cashing their IOUs.   Small businesses may not even be able to survive without the ability to keep the lights on and making payroll.  Needless to say, this is a complete debacle, and I hope it does not cause too much damage.  Additionally, this round of IOUs for those who have a tax refund is further proof that it is better to owe the government money.  If you are in this group it is probably a good idea to withhold less from your checks.

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Many of the large tech companies around here already went through rounds of publicized and internally announced layoffs and a good majority has had pay freezes or paycuts starting as early as late last year.  These are all public companies that you probably have heard of.  Basically noone I know in a large company has had a raise this year with the exception of people at Lockheed Martin.  Lockheed is doing fine since is a defense contractor and we are in the midst of war.  The government cut some of their contracts and added others.    The largest organization in California is the state of California itself, and we all know how terrible the state coffers are right now.  Pretty much all public employees I know are  getting paycuts in the form of furloughs and some are being laid off.  Banking is another industry that got hit extremely hard for obvious reasons.  For example, we have a Downey Savings, WaMu, Wachovia, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America all on the same block.  Two of those banks are technically dead.

On the flip side the friends I know that work for smaller corporations still managed to get raises and bonuses this year.  This is not to say that smaller companies are doing better than larger corporations as a whole, but I think that in general smaller companies have less fat to trim than large corporations.  Most startups tend to pay less than large companies, and have a leaner team to operate everything.    For the most part raises are rare this year, and they are also much smaller than previous years.   Many small companies depend on the spending of large corporations so there is really a trickle down effect.   Personally I have no idea if my company is giving out raises, but I am not expecting anything.  I would seriously be happy with a 1% raise just to cover the increase in state taxes.  The hubby got a small 3.75% raise and I am pretty happy about that even though it is smaller than any previous raise.

Anyway, the greater economy is really out of our control, and I am pretty grateful that we still have jobs.  However, I think everyone should try to give themselves a bonus or raise through saving or earning more money.  I have done several things to essentially give ourselves a raise this year such as refinancing our mortgage, renegotiating our rent, and continuing to blog.  Reducing our mortgage and rent is basically saving us 3300 after tax money every year, and that is significant.  My blogging income is also much higher than last year as my articles age and I have a bigger collection of articles.  These changes make me a little less uneasy about the general doom and gloom atmosphere we are in, and I am hopeful that the American economy will recover eventually.

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First of all, I am glad that this is happening because I am just sick of all the efforts to push down mortgage rates  when there is no good reason to push it down.  Higher mortgage rates will encourage people to borrow less money, and push down housing prices.  That is not a bad thing on both counts. People will buy houses when it is affordable and reasonable.  Many people are buying right now because housing prices have come down dramatically, and not because of the historically low  mortgage rate. New homebuyers may not be able to lock down mortgages under 5% any longer, but the dip in prices to come may just make up the difference. The only negative is for those who are waiting to refinance, because those below 5% rates are now gone.

Higher yields on treasuries may also make those in charge of the  U.S. government think a little bit before they issue more debt. They need to know that they cannot make every bond buyer pay extremely low rates and this endless borrowing needs to be controlled. If the U.S. government spent and borrowed less, then our taxes may be lower.  However, these higher yields will just mean that Americans will be paying more in interest for years to come with their tax revenues.  This is unfortunate, but bond buyers are investors who should not have to accept rates that do not match the risk of the investment.  For what it is worth, I think right now the yield on 10 and 30 year treasuries is still fairly low so the U.S. is still getting a fairly good deal.

Some other effects I am hopeful about is that perhaps short term rates will follow on the upward trend and savings rates will go up accordingly.  The worst scenario is that inflation is going up AND savings yields are still abysmal, and in a way that is sort of happening now.  Inflation isn’t tremendous this year, but I am noticing some small increases in gas and food prices.  Additionally, wage growth is fairly small all over the board due to the recession.

Anyway, the Obama administration tried to reassure  China that its holdings are safe by pledging that the U.S. will try to reduce its budget deficit and eliminate the market manipulations by the government.  I personally think that China’s worries are justified because actions speak louder than words.  If the U.S. is really trying to reduce its budget deficit then it shouldn’t pledge more and more borrowing and spending.   The fact that Geithner had to make such a trip to reassure Chinese leaders shows that the U.S. government is feeling insecure about its debt situation and that does not inspire confidence in the bond market. China really has no obligation to buy trillions of U.S. treasuries and China is free to invest its reserves however it wants.  If China’s reluctance to lend encourages the US to cut its borrowing and spending then it is a good thing for  United State citizens in the long run.

In conclusion, the stock markets are showing signs of recovery, so this will probably push bond yields higher since there will probably be less demand for bonds.   This is good news for everyone who has money in the stock market.  It is reasonable that bond yields are going up, and it is nice to see some market forces push back against the heavy hand of government intervention.

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