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Today Goldman Sachs was handed a $450k fine for violating a short selling rule and there is an ongoing civil suit concerning their role in creating and selling a synthetic CDO product called Abacus.   Here is what I think of the whole debacle.

First, let me tell you a little story.  Yesterday my mom called me and told me of an investment property she and my dad were considering.  Apparently the current owners bought two duplexes at the height of the bubble for $500,000 and put $250,000 down, and now these two buildings are listed for $77000 each.  My mom’s comment was, “isn’t this sad?  The hard working folks lost all the money and Wall Street won!” I basically replied to her and asked her what Wall Street won from this particular case.  The lender to the couple will lose money in this deal, and it seems to me that this couple just made a bad investment.  However, the general sentiment now is that all the bankers are to blame for everything ill in this world whether it is true or not.

The folks who bought Goldman’s Abacus product also made a bad investment, and it seems silly for them to complain that Goldman “knew” that the investment will go sour.  Seriously, can you really blame Goldman Sachs for people who do not pay their mortgages?  Did Goldman hold a gun to these people’s heads and force them to sign their loan documents and default?  I think it’s ridiculous to say that Goldman or Wall Street in general knew that the housing crisis was going to happen when almost EVERYONE and their pets’ fleas were caught in the real estate mania and truly believed that real estate prices will never fall. The contention here is that the person who helped create Abacus felt that the underlying investments would go sour so he was on the other side of the bet, but obviously the buyers of Abacus felt that it was a good investment because they would not have bought it otherwise. They also trusted the ratings companies that rated these underlying securities to be awesome. So this case seems like the buyers of these investments are feeling gypped that their bet went wrong.  The fact is that they had access to the data of every underlying security, and it is their fault for not doing their due diligence.

Although I am not a fan of market makers like Goldman Sachs because I feel that they control too much, in this case I think it is ridiculous to try them for fraud.  If they committed fraud because they selected a consultant who believed that the securities would fall, then perhaps all the people that lost money in real estate in recent years should sue the real estate agents of the sellers that they bought their homes from.  Perhaps those real estate agents counseled their clients into selling their homes because they felt that the real estate market peaked, and they gained from the sales financially.  Have they all committed fraud, too?  Goldman is an easy target because there is all this hate against big financial institutions now, but when will people own up to their  mistakes?  All the investors from the Wall Street banks that bought these CDOs to the “Main Street” duplex owners who lost money in the real estate bubble are only here because of their own greed and I am not shedding a tear for any of them.

As to the SEC, it almost seems like they’re trying to show that they are doing something productive after the .  In this case I agree with by selling Abacus.   I don’t know what kind of precedent this case would present to salivating lawyers.  What’s next?  Can anyone with a bearish opinion be sued when proven right?  Will investors start suing blogs like Calculated Risk and Doctor Housing Bubble for “creating” the real estate collapse by writing about their honest opinions about the real estate mania?  Lets be honest here, if the real estate bubble hasn’t popped yet then this lawsuit would not have been brought forth, and I really think that everyone should just accept their wins and losses in this whole madness and move on to better investment opportunities.

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Several people have said to me that if I were to retire early then I would lose out on a great deal of Social Security benefits.  The fact is that the earlier I retire the more return I would receive from Social Security.  Here is the reason why those who want to get more from Social Security should retire early.

First of all, I am still 40 years from what Social Security calls the “full retirement age”.  That is when I can collect 100% of the benefits I am entitled to.  In 40 years I have no idea whether or not this program would be around.  If it is not going to be around anymore then it seems to make sense to pay as little into it as possible.

Next there’s the issue of how your retirement benefits are calculated under Social Security.  Basically, the calculations work out so that those who pay more will get less of a return on what they paid.  Here is theof how Social Security benefits are calculated this year.

Using that worksheet lets do a real example of two hypothetical people that both start working in 1991 and reach their full retirement age in 2010. (This is possible since some immigrants start working in America later in life.)  Suppose person A works for 10 years from 1991 to 2000, and person B works for 20 years from 1991 to 2009.  Also suppose that they both start off with a salary of $32,000 per year and get a raise of 2% per year. The is that person A has a monthly benefit of $866.49, and person B has a monthly benefit of $1180.58. So basically, person B paid more than twice the taxes as person A, but has a benefit of only 36% more.  Why isn’t it 100% more?   The reason is that the formula is meant to replace more income of a person with lower lifetime earnings.   It’s pretty easy to see that this is a system of diminishing returns, and it is better to retire early if you can because the rate of return you get on your taxes would be higher than if you retired later.

Finally I think a lot of people have a misconception of how Social Security works.  All the money we are paying now are going to current retirees.  None of the money is being saved into an account like a 401k.  So in the future the benefits we collect will come from younger folks.  It is supposed to be an insurance system since a lot of people die before ever collecting any benefits, but it is really another system that forcibly transfers income, and there is no point in paying for it more than you have to.

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This May would be my fifth anniversary in the “real world”.  I basically packed a suitcase and left home a week after graduating from college and started working and living on my own.  These are some of the things I learned so far about myself and work after five years.

When you just get out of college, an interview question many people ask you is, “Where do you want to be in five years?” I usually said that I would like to still be an engineer.  I really did not want to be a manager or executive, and as of now that is still true.  I am still an engineer, but in the past five years I have learned a lot of things in the jobs I had and on my own.  I am comfortable with where I am at right now, and when you stay an engineer there really isn’t a lot of room to move “up”.  Some people may say that’s a deadend job, but it is a pretty decent deadend job and I am fine with it.

Another thing I figured out pretty quickly is that I don’t care about money as much as a flexible work schedule and a good supportive work environment. I am not afraid to quit my job and find something new if I am unhappy, and I am not afraid of being jobless for a while .  Basically, I have developed a confidence that I could survive on my abilities, and I refuse to believe that I have to stay in a situation that I do not like.  I see a job as a path to retirement, and not the thing that defines my life.  Some of my family members have said that I am a job hopper just because I am on my third job in five years, but it is pretty common here for people to move around, and I think I’m actually pretty normal.

With that said, I have to admit that my current job is really the best job I have had so far, and although I know I would be paid more at my previous job I am content to be where I am now. It is not perfect, but it is a place where I can work on my own terms and a company with a great product line. If that changes drastically or if an extremely well rounded offer comes along then I would leave, but I don’t see that happening any time soon.  I am much more clear about what I want from a job now than I was five years ago because I have worked at multiple places and I know I have a pretty good situation here.

Finally, the Silicon Valley is really an awesome place for young engineers to learn about the world and accumulate some wealth.  For the most part, software engineers do the same thing in a multitude of companies.  I think the interesting difference between my work and another release engineer’s work  is just the product we ship out and the impact the products make on the world.  The products are what make our work somewhat meaningful, because otherwise it’s just a waste of time.  The Valley is also a good place to sharpen your skills, earn an above average salary, and make great connections.   If you are frugal and plan well you can save enough in a few years and retire somewhere cheap.  We will definitely get out of here when we retire, because it’s a great place for what we Chinese call the “bare branches” (single men), but once you have a family the cost of living here is just not worth it.

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