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According to a report based on new Census data, last year the This is worse than the decline of homeownership amongst all the other major ethnic groups.  Some economists quoted in the article were surprised at this development since Asians households in America generally have high income and low debt.   So why has this group dropped out of homeownership the most?

The article suggested that the effect may be regional because most Asians in America live in California, which is one of the states hardest hit by declining prices and the recession.  This is definitely a solid theory.  Asians are not immune to job losses and for many families the loss of even one job means that the  next mortgage payment is no longer affordable.  As I wrote in , Asians often ignore the basic debt to income ratio guidelines to buy a home because they figure they will save money on everything else.  If two people were paying 58% of their income on a mortgage then one job loss definitely puts the nail on the coffin.  California currently has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country, and since the Asian community is concentrated here in California we are affected as a whole.

Next I think the speculative mania during the housing bubble was much more intense amongst the Asian community.  This is just my anecdotal experience, but my whole family and Indian coworkers talked about real estate pretty much 24/7.  These people mostly had significant amounts of savings for a downpayment, great credit, and all they were seeing is that the real estate market went up 20%  a year while stocks were not exactly catching up.   This prompted a lot of people to buy real estate that they did not even need.  Some of them intended to flip the properties quickly, and some became landlords with the intention to flip a bit later.   Another thing that spread the fire is that Asians talk about personal finance amongst family and friends very often so more and more people jumped on the bandwagon.  There are also folks who used their homes as ATMs to buy more property because they figured that they were  making a sound  investment.  For the most part, the Asians I have encountered that did all of these real estate deals knew exactly what they were getting into, and they were all sure that they were being smart about their money.  The phrase I heard the most often were that “real estate prices in the Bay Area will never go down” and “real estate is the best investment”.  I know that many non-Asian people did the same thing, but I feel that the Asian community got into real estate much more because owning real property is high on their priority lists.

Now after the crash, I actually do not personally know any Asian families that lost their homes.  I do know several that are fairly underwater, but they are still faithfully paying their debt because they are still employed.  Believe it or not real estate is still a really hot topic for my parents and their friends.  Now they are all talking about scooping up cheap properties as rental properties.  Now what I hear from my mom is similar to the following, “this property sold for $400,000 in 2005!  Now it’s 70% off! Positive cashflow!!!”.   I responded to her, “mom, remember when I told you a few years ago that real estate could come down by 40% and you didn’t believe me?”  She then said, “It’s more than 40% down!!”   I guess the obsession will never end.      Anyway, I wish them luck, and I hope some of the decline in homeownership was voluntary and not due to foreclosures.

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best price for cialison 09.22.09 at 10:58 pm

The obsession will never end, and I don’t know about you, but properties in San Francisco have rebounded quite handsomely. Check out my latest post.. but it may very well be all an illusion.

Taiwan property prices are at new record highs. Shenzhen, Shanghai property prices are up 25% YoY and going higher. Hong Kong property prices are only 5-10% away from peak 2007 levels, and Singapore property prices have gone NUTS!

It looks like the best time to buy property was this past summer. Things have really heated up again.

best price for cialison 09.24.09 at 8:16 am

We have just experienced the biggest gain in real estate values in the history of our country. Many of the drivers for this gain will never happen again:

1) Over 180% of the gain has come from the collapse of the interest rate mega bubble with mortgage rates falling from 18% to 5%.

2) Households have doubled the number of workers that go out into the workforce. Most of the increased spending power has gone to driving up home prices. Elizabeth Warren has done some remarkable research in this area.

3) The Babyboom generation has created a spike in consumption.

4) People have made the choice to speculate instead of save for retirement.

5) Households in this country have more debt than ever before. Almost all of this increased debt was used to inflate home values.

6) Our government has spent trillions of future productive capacity to institutionalize overpriced housing. There are hundreds of government programs(grants, tax credits, tax deductions, moral hazard) that has bribed our citizens to buy homes. These trillions of dollars of unproductive spending every year are imbedded in the system and can not be removed.

These are just some of the events that created the tailwind in home prices for the last 25 years. They can not happen again. We are starting a new interest rate mega bubble that will create headwinds in the real estate market as rates start to go up. This will replace the gailforce tailwinds of the past 25 years.

Perhaps the biggest tailwind could be the realization that we must actually(gulp) save for retirement. This is a concept that is foreign our present generation and could be quite a shock to many. I am a tax accountant and in my opinion 95% of my clients will retire at a much lower standard of living than they have presently. I would say about 90% of this group do not realize this fact. Our present generation seems very adept at ignoring the future.

Thank you Baglady for promoting thrift and prudent living.

Real estate is a fun topic for conversation because people still believe in the easy money of the past 25 years but unfortunately it is gone and never to return.

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