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The obsession will never end, and I don’t know about you, but properties in San Francisco have rebounded quite handsomely. Check out my latest post.. but it may very well be all an illusion.
Taiwan property prices are at new record highs. Shenzhen, Shanghai property prices are up 25% YoY and going higher. Hong Kong property prices are only 5-10% away from peak 2007 levels, and Singapore property prices have gone NUTS!
It looks like the best time to buy property was this past summer. Things have really heated up again.
We have just experienced the biggest gain in real estate values in the history of our country. Many of the drivers for this gain will never happen again:
1) Over 180% of the gain has come from the collapse of the interest rate mega bubble with mortgage rates falling from 18% to 5%.
2) Households have doubled the number of workers that go out into the workforce. Most of the increased spending power has gone to driving up home prices. Elizabeth Warren has done some remarkable research in this area.
3) The Babyboom generation has created a spike in consumption.
4) People have made the choice to speculate instead of save for retirement.
5) Households in this country have more debt than ever before. Almost all of this increased debt was used to inflate home values.
6) Our government has spent trillions of future productive capacity to institutionalize overpriced housing. There are hundreds of government programs(grants, tax credits, tax deductions, moral hazard) that has bribed our citizens to buy homes. These trillions of dollars of unproductive spending every year are imbedded in the system and can not be removed.
These are just some of the events that created the tailwind in home prices for the last 25 years. They can not happen again. We are starting a new interest rate mega bubble that will create headwinds in the real estate market as rates start to go up. This will replace the gailforce tailwinds of the past 25 years.
Perhaps the biggest tailwind could be the realization that we must actually(gulp) save for retirement. This is a concept that is foreign our present generation and could be quite a shock to many. I am a tax accountant and in my opinion 95% of my clients will retire at a much lower standard of living than they have presently. I would say about 90% of this group do not realize this fact. Our present generation seems very adept at ignoring the future.
Thank you Baglady for promoting thrift and prudent living.
Real estate is a fun topic for conversation because people still believe in the easy money of the past 25 years but unfortunately it is gone and never to return.
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