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There was a mini panic in the financial markets recently when the .  The 30 year bond’s yield is now over 4.5%.  This is due to the fact that the central bank has been trying to push long term rates down by announcing that it is buying an additional $1 trillion of U.S. agency debt.  It seems like bond buyers are no longer taking this manipulation of yields, and they are demanding the interest on their investments.  What does this mean for little guys like you and me?

First of all, I am glad that this is happening because I am just sick of all the efforts to push down mortgage rates  when there is no good reason to push it down.  Higher mortgage rates will encourage people to borrow less money, and push down housing prices.  That is not a bad thing on both counts. People will buy houses when it is affordable and reasonable.  Many people are buying right now because housing prices have come down dramatically, and not because of the historically low  mortgage rate. New homebuyers may not be able to lock down mortgages under 5% any longer, but the dip in prices to come may just make up the difference. The only negative is for those who are waiting to refinance, because those below 5% rates are now gone.

Higher yields on treasuries may also make those in charge of the  U.S. government think a little bit before they issue more debt. They need to know that they cannot make every bond buyer pay extremely low rates and this endless borrowing needs to be controlled. If the U.S. government spent and borrowed less, then our taxes may be lower.  However, these higher yields will just mean that Americans will be paying more in interest for years to come with their tax revenues.  This is unfortunate, but bond buyers are investors who should not have to accept rates that do not match the risk of the investment.  For what it is worth, I think right now the yield on 10 and 30 year treasuries is still fairly low so the U.S. is still getting a fairly good deal.

Some other effects I am hopeful about is that perhaps short term rates will follow on the upward trend and savings rates will go up accordingly.  The worst scenario is that inflation is going up AND savings yields are still abysmal, and in a way that is sort of happening now.  Inflation isn’t tremendous this year, but I am noticing some small increases in gas and food prices.  Additionally, wage growth is fairly small all over the board due to the recession.

Anyway, the that its holdings are safe by pledging that the U.S. will try to reduce its budget deficit and eliminate the market manipulations by the government.  I personally think that China’s worries are justified because actions speak louder than words.  If the U.S. is really trying to reduce its budget deficit then it shouldn’t pledge more and more borrowing and spending.   The fact that Geithner had to make such a trip to reassure Chinese leaders shows that the U.S. government is feeling insecure about its debt situation and that does not inspire confidence in the bond market. China really has no obligation to buy trillions of U.S. treasuries and China is free to invest its reserves however it wants.  If China’s reluctance to lend encourages the US to cut its borrowing and spending then it is a good thing for  United State citizens in the long run.

In conclusion, the stock markets are showing signs of recovery, so this will probably push bond yields higher since there will probably be less demand for bonds.   This is good news for everyone who has money in the stock market.  It is reasonable that bond yields are going up, and it is nice to see some market forces push back against the heavy hand of government intervention.

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side effects of cialis and viagra

side effects of cialis and viagraon 06.01.09 at 8:29 pm

Good article. Definately written from a renter’s perspective.

Our Federal govt. will continue to lobby China to buy U.S. debt. The U.S. will continue to be hush on China’s human rights violations in order to not offend China and risk them cashing out their U.S. debt holdings and/or curtailing their U.S. debt purchases.

The increase in Treasury rates is also a good predictor of inflation rates going forward.

Our Nation’s general entitlement philosophy is due for a day of reckoning some time in the future. Our government’s ability to spend more than it makes in tax revenues cannot continue for long without drastic cuts in out years.

side effects of cialis and viagraon 06.02.09 at 10:21 am

Good article.

I’m afraid that there might be several negative consequences due to the “collapsing” bond market:

1) US currency continues to lose value
2) as mortgage goes up, demand for housing will go down. There will be further pressure on housing price. This will hurt medium-to-high-end housing hard.
3) depending on what US government will do — if they choose to print even more money, there will be a severe inflation. Or, the opposite could happen (i.e. de-flation).

Not a pretty situation.

side effects of cialis and viagraon 06.03.09 at 12:15 am

I think they definately need to do something to help resolve the issues regarding money, how the government is going to make money now and in the future and whether they can sustainably run the country with the expenses they have had this last year. You hope that this will all work out and they can make money fast to resolve any long term issue.

side effects of cialis and viagraon 06.08.09 at 1:22 pm

Due to the housing bubble we were in, people refinanced their houses and spend their equity, the market needs to correct itself. Higher interest rates could be part of that correction. Regardless, a correction will be painful for us all.

I forsee inflation appearing in the next year, begining with higher oil prices, gold, etc.

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