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A year ago I wroteabout the government’s plan to freeze mortgage rates and how ridiculous it was. I also suggested that people should just walk away from their gigantic loans and buy something cheaper. A lot has happened since then. There were countless attempts by the government to revive the housing market with very little success, and many people did walk away from their underwater loans and buy cheaper homes. Yesterday, showed that more than 50% of borrowers who received loan modifications end up defaulting again anyway.

When I read the news I thought to myself, “well, what did you expect?” Many of these loan modifications either changed the loan term from 30 years to 40 years or lowered the interest rate, but the borrowers still owe a gigantic debt on a depreciating asset. There is no incentive for them to pay the debt if they can find a place to live in for even less money than the reduced mortgage payment.   Seriously, who would want to pay a $400,000 debt on an asset that is worth only $200,000?

Additionally, all of these loan modifications encourage bad behavior.  The borrowers probably think that if they don’t pay they will be bailed out again because bailouts are all the rage right now.  Everyday the news is reporting some kind of government action to deal with foreclosures.  So if you already got free housing for 3 to 4 month and then got a modification on your loan, then you have another 3 to 4 months until a foreclosure comes.  That’s 6 to 8 months of no housing payments even if there is no second modification, and that seems like a good financial incentive to default.

Another driver in re-defaulting is the worsening economic state of the world.  , and perhaps a lot of people no longer have the amount of income they had when they received the loan modification.  For now, I think the unemployment situation is only going to get worse.

I think the lesson in this is that the government should stop messing with the free market and let foreclosures happen naturally.  These modifications and bailouts are just prolonging the pain for everyone involved.  I suppose that more than 40% of these borrowers are still paying for their modified loans,  but they really  may be better off by renting and saving for a down payment on a cheaper home.  Home prices have come down more than 25% in many parts of the country, and it is slated to go down even further.  It would take a while for a foreclosure to come off someone’s credit report, but that might be the perfect time for that person to build up a sizable down payment.

I think home prices will go down for at least another 4 to 5 years and recover if the government stops with the interventions.  If they continue to manipulate the market through interest rates and loan modifications then it may take the housing market a longer time to recover precisely because the bad apples will still be hanging on.  For example, if a person gets a foreclosure now then  it would take seven years for it to come off their credit report.   So in seven  years this person would be a prime borrower again.  However, if he hangs onto the mortgage through various bank and government deals and then redefaults after two years, then it would take nine years from now for that person to become a prime borrower again.  The sooner people get foreclosed on, the sooner they can rebuild their credit and become suitable homebuyers again.  The housing market will only recover when the demand returns, and I truly believe that  all of these government polices to prevent foreclosure will simply stall the recovery of the housing market.

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Okay obviously this post is a bit late for Thanksgiving, but I had a good time with my family and ate a lot of food last weekend.  Lately I haven’t been blogging much just because a lot of random things are happening.  I am swamped with real life so to speak.  While I have had time to sit down and write I did not have much to say so I didn’t write much.  So anyway, it’s December again, and it’s almost Christmas and the news is full of gloom of doom. I think to get away from all the depressing news I need to write down all the things I am thankful for.

First, I am very thankful for my family and friends.  I am just happy to be loved.   This year I am also grateful that I got to see my elderly grandparents in China.  They are a hilarious couple and I may write a story or two about them later.  If you want to read a little bit about them my hubby wrote .

Second, I am very thankful that my entire family amidst the massive layoffs in November My hubby is in the video game industry and apparently this industry is .  In fact, his company is still hiring people for new projects.  As long as we have a steady stream of income we should be able to ride out this recession without too much of a problem.

Third, I think a lot of people are thankful for this one – prices are going down on gas and food!  Actually the price of gasoline is $1.75 a gallon now on my street and that means my hubby and I would save around $100 a month on gas.  I have not seen those prices for gas for about 5 years.  I noticed that milk and bread also got a little bit cheaper and it is expected that food prices would come down a bit more.  This is definitely good news for people who need a little financial relief though some economists are worried about deflation, but that’s another story entirely.

Next,  I am happy that my sister in law is getting married.  I don’t talk to her all that much because she lives about 500 miles away, but she’s getting married in two weeks and that’s pretty exciting.  The hubby will be a groomsman and look all sharp.  She picked a very expensive tux rental and that annoyed me and my mother in law a little bit, but that’s just because we want to save money.  My father in law and hubby should look pretty good though.

Also,  I am thankful that my hubby and I got to go on vacation and  various weekend trips in the past year.  Okay, this is actually a story about my grandparents.  When we were  in my grandparents’ condo, my grandmother kept on telling me that I am so lucky that my husband is willing to travel with me.  Then she went on and complained that my grandfather was so cheap that he never took her traveling in their 54 years of marriage and now they are too old to go places.   My parents always say that I am frugal like my grandfather, but I am not that cheap!  I think there really needs to be a balance between hoarding your money and wasting your money and there is no point in hoarding your money senselessly because in the end you really can’t take it with you.

Finally, all of these things are gifts from God so all the thanks goes to Him.  I know that I have a lot more than most people in this world and I don’t take it lightly.  Everyday is truly a gift.

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