It needs to get worse before it gets better – Thoughts on the AIG bailout and current economy

So by now I am sure all of you know that Lehman Brothers has filed for bankruptcy and Bank of America purchase Merrill Lynch. Additionally, one of the largest insurance companies, AIG, is in deep financial trouble and was just bailed out by the government. In reaction to the news, the Dow Jones industrial plunged more than 500 points yesterday and regained more than 140 points today. It all sounds quite unsettling and volatile right now, but I really think bad things need to happen before things can get any better, and this is my reasoning.

First of all, I think most of us have had the experience of eating something horribly uncouth and falling ill. What usually happens is a bit of a stomach ache, and then full blown diarrhea, but once the last bit of toxin is out of your body you start to feel better. I think the financial markets is basically in the middle of a cathartic bowel movement right now. As many commentators have said, the debt and mortgage backed securities were “toxic” and these securities poisoned many firms and it is only natural that we’re seeing death and destruction. As a result, the more prudent firms are surviving and becoming stronger. For example, Bank of America has snapped up Countrywide and Merrill in the midst of this, and their position as a financial services company has been strengthened.

The problem I see with the current situation is the string of bailouts being handed out by the United States government. Last week it was the bailout of Fannie and Freddie, and today AIG just got an emergency $85 billion loan and the government will be receiving a 79.9% equity stake. This pretty much means that the United States government is now the largest insurer in the world. The problem with this is not only that the government is throwing good taxpayer money after bad, but that the United States is taking on enormous amounts of financial risk.  If the government left these companies alone and let them perish or be gobbled up by competitors, then the resolution to their failure might come quicker and the government will not have to borrow countless amounts of money that have to be paid off for decades.  Right now we are seeing policies that mirror the policies that possibly extended The Great Depression and that’s what’s truly frightening.

So in conclusion, I guess I am saying that 500 point stock market drops do not really bother me all that much because I am a long term investor, but these hundred-billion dollar bailouts are really disconcerting.  How many of these bailouts can we taxpayers really afford?  How many years will America be slave to its lenders?   It is hard to know the future, but Washington should really let the financial markets work itself out without prolonging the current pain.  I hope that people would remember what happened to lead up to the current financial crisis, and learn something from it, but unfortunately I think history  tends to repeat itself over and over again.

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