The Big Scary Black Hole of Fannie and Freddie

The latest news is that Henry Paulson is “readying his bazooka” to let the government take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac completely since the dastardly housing bailout bill passed in July gave him the power.  This is actually very scary news for many reasons.  Here are some of my thoughts.

First of all,  no one knows what the exact damage would be yet since the housing meltdown is not over.  Fannie and Freddie hold over $5 trillion dollars in mortgage loans, and own about 44% of all the foreclosed homes as of August 2008.  Since foreclosure numbers are still stacking up the amount of losses Fannie and Freddie will sustain is still going up.  Once the government officially takes over these enterprises taxpayers would be paying for all the loan guarantees and costs to dispose of these foreclosed properties.  Even if the housing market does not worsen, I think it is safe to say that the Treasury will stand to lose billions if they take over Fannie and Freddie

The situation right now is that if the government does not take over Fannie and Freddie then they may not stay open for very long since investors have lost quite a bit of confidence in the mortgaged backed securities spewed by these companies.  The stock prices of these companies have plunged and they’re drowning in billions of losses.  Without Fannie and Freddie’s guarantees on loans, it would be harder for everyone to get loans and home sales will be even slower and that will simply bring about more losses amongst the financial industry.  It is almost like  the government almost has no choice but to step in and stabilize the mortgage and credit market.

Interestingly enough, both McCain and Obama agree that Fannie and Freddie should not be bailed out since they are supposedly private entities,  but these two government sponsored enterprises have so much influence  and so many loans now that just letting them fail could have a huge impact on the real estate market.    I think it is really bizarre that these two companies were allowed to operate in such a way that they are government sponsored, and yet not carefully regulated to take on sensible risks.  Where was the line drawn?  Now that the crap has hit the fan, taxpayers have to pick up the pieces?

So on one hand, I agree wholeheartedly that Fannie and Freddie need to be restructured by the government for the good of the economy, but will they do it correctly this time?  If the current lending and fraud prevention practices continue, Fannie and Freddie will be nothing but endless money pits where taxpayer money bleeds into oblivion.  If management becomes good and these enterprises become profitable again, where will the money go?  Will taxpayers see any return on the good fortunes of these companies as their former shareholders once did?  Right now, there are so many questions and so little answers, and the big unknown future of Fannie and Freddie is rather frightening.

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