I don’t write much about politics, because I absolutely loathe it. I am also not an American citizen so my opinion doesn’t count in this country anyway. Nevertheless, I have no idea why anyone would want to be the next president of America right now. With everything that is happening, it truly is a horrible time to be president. Here are some of my predictions of what would happen regardless of which candidate gets elected.
1. Taxes will increase – How is it possible that America could wage an extremely expensive war for five years and cut taxes? I’m not sure how the government does its accounting, but it did borrow a crapload of money from the rest of the world to fund this multi-trillion dollar war. The war is funded on debt, and Americans have not really started paying for it. The interest on the debt will pile on, and we will be paying for it for years to come. Taxes will increase either because the Bush tax cuts expire in 2010 or because the next president will just have no choice but to raise taxes and pay down some of that debt.
2. The recession will be felt more acutely - This is really anecdotal, but yesterday I walked around downtown San Mateo and at least three shops and restaurants were out of business. One restaurant just said, “LOST OUR LEASE” on the door. The recession is really just beginning, and usually in an election year the government does whatever it could to prop up the stock market, but once the next president gets up to serve it will come crashing down.
3. The housing market will fall some more – Of course the NAR is calling a bottom now that housing sales went up a measly 2.9% nationally in February. They are not highlighting the fact that this February was a whole day longer than last year, which means that the month was 3.5% longer. Prices were down 8.2% and housing sales still declined in the west. I am not sure if the bottom will come in the next presidential term, but the housing market will definitely decline a bit more.
4. The war will go on – It is unfortunate, but I don’t think the war in Iraq will be over as soon as the democrats promise. The Americans are just too entrenched in that country to suddenly pull out.
Whoever the next president is, God help him/her. I really think that a major problem with American politics is that power changes hands every four years so that every president tend to do short term fixes and make his/her four years look as glorious as possible and leave the seething crapbag to the next person in line. The entire system fits with the American culture of “I want it right here right now”, and that results in policies that borrow against the future. For example, billions of dollars have been taken out of Social Security in the last couple decades to pay for operating expenses. Unfortunately, I don’t think this prevailing attitude and policy of sealing mortal wounds with bandages would change with new leadership.
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7 comments ↓
Agreed, it has to be one of the tougher times in our history to be president. But even with the great obstacles that lie ahead, maybe we can elect someone who can do some great things. That is my hope anyway!
And you know what the really sad thing is?…I have friends who are living life as though none of this things will affect them.
Friends are taking out larger mortgages and purchasing larger cars that guzzle tons of gas.
It will be a sad sad day to have to see people who are not making lifestyle modifications today, suffer tomorrow..
Gotta agree with you on 2 – 4. However, to explain #1, why you don’t increase taxes..you decrease them. It’s economics 101. When you increase taxes, people start paying more to get less..and when that starts happening, people start spending less and holding on to their money. When that happens, tax revenues fall and areas become blighted – Look at Detroit and now most of upper New Jersey. When you increase corporate taxes, they just pass it on down to the consumer. The consumers buy less…the companies sell less…the companies lay off people..FICA revenues fall because unemployment goes up and less people are working and buying less…it’s a never ending cycle. When you reduce corporate taxes, companies can make more and hire more people..FICA revenues increase because more people are working and paying into the system. The U.S. has taken in record high revenues for the last 5 quarters preceding the housing market collapse. Keep taxes low and you bring more tax revenue in. It has always worked and always will.
As much as I don’t want to believe it. This article is pretty accurate and really hits home.
Pride & Power…
Simply the challenge and the ability to make a difference. The next president could be the next FDR. When something is broken more people will agree with you to get something done. At least that’s one less barrier to go through. When everything is rosy and nice democracy’s are pretty stagnant.
Democracies….
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