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So there is chatter in the news the government worked out a deal with major banks to freeze the adjustable rates on mortgages of many subprime borrowers. The rules are, the loan has to be originated from the beginning of 2005 to July 30th of 2007 and the rate is set to reset in 2008 to 2010. The subprime borrower also have to have a good payment history and live in the home to qualify. So I thought I would do an non-expert analysis on who benefits the most in this situation.

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The biggest winner is the banks that made these loans. Some of the teaser rates for these subprime loans are as high as 8%, so I don’t think the banks are hurting much by collecting a rate thats 16 times the average of national banks interest payout on savings accounts. Additionally, by keeping the borrowers in their homes, the banks do not have to deal with an asset that has depreciated in value. Basically, the banks are saving and earning billions by keeping subprime borrowers up to date with their debt.

The next big winner in this situation is the government. Why? One word: taxes. By keeping these stretched homeowners in their homes the government can continue to collect property taxes. Additionally, since the mortgage rates are not rising the homeowners will have less mortgage interest to deduct on their taxes and that means more tax revenue for the government than they would have had otherwise.

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I don’t consider the homeowners who keep their homes in this plan to be winners. Sure, they get to keep their home, but many of them are so financially stretched that almost their entire income is going to the banks and that is a very stressful situation. In fact, if they weren’t financially stretched, they wouldn’t qualify for the program. This is Secretary Paulson’s outline of the plan:

Paulson offered a general outline of the plan on Monday. He identified four groups of subprime borrowers facing rate increases on their adjustable-rate loans: Those who cannot afford their payments even at the current rate; those who could afford payments at the higher rate; those can refinance into a “sustainable mortgage while keeping investors whole;” and those who can afford their mortgages today but could not at the higher rate.

Only the fourth group would get help.

These homeowners are just indentured servants to a gargantuan money hungry force. Their rates will be frozen for five years, but they will have to keep on paying the price on an asset that has depreciated greatly with all that they have.

 

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I would count myself amongst “The Angry” because I think the plan is unfair to most consumers and Americans in general. I don’t own a home, but I know many people who took out reasonable fixed rate loans at higher rates than these subprime borrowers, only to see irresponsible behavior rewarded. Additionally, as Paulson said, “those who could afford payments at the higher rate” will not get help. How is that fair? I suppose life just isn’t fair. I think this plan, and other mortgage related bailouts are just further discouraging people from saving money, and living a sustainable lifestyle. I also think the subprime borrowers who had absolutely no equity in their homes would do better just to walk away, save some money and buy a home for a much cheaper price. I know it’s not that easy, but we can’t continue to support this manipulated bubble economy.

Quote Source: San Francisco Chronicle 12/6/2007 This article is a great read that echos some of my thoughts.

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cialis overdoseon 12.06.07 at 9:19 pm

The bailout seems quite ridiculous. It’s just rewarding people who took a big financial risk (and lost).

I guess the gov’t just wants to avoid a major economic event.

cialis overdoseon 12.07.07 at 12:12 am

This is going to be another of those cases in which the government fix will be worse over time. What about all those people who worked so hard to not have their homes taken?…

cialis overdoseon 12.07.07 at 12:48 am

Well, it seems that whoever is already late on their payments are screwed. So I agree with the Chronicle piece where a commentator says they’re just prolonging the pain.

cialis overdoseon 12.07.07 at 1:10 am

The bailout is taking down the whole country. Borrowers and lenders that made bad choices should have to bear the consequences of those choices. Instead we are devaluing the money for the entire country to bail out Wall Street. In the end, even the indentured are going to find life harder. Their only hope is that all these interest cuts the Fed is making will increase inflation to the point where people aren’t upside down on their houses and they can sell them (if there is anyone around that wants to and can afford them).

cialis overdoseon 12.07.07 at 2:09 pm

Generally, I find it extremely annoying how some people view owning a home as an absolute necessity and a guaranteed right, when it is neither.

I do not feel sorry for people who are going to be kicked out of their houses and forced to rent. Why should I? I rent and I don’t feel sorry for myself. I NEVER say to myself, “Man, my life would be so much better if all weekend I could sit around in a living room… that I owned. Oh, and I sure I would rather fix my shower myself than call someone else over to do it.”

But it could be worse. This isn’t a real government bailout. A real government bailout would use tax money and make us feel like we were living in Europe.

cialis overdoseon 12.08.07 at 10:13 am

I have so many thoughts about this mess I don’t even know where to begin.

While this is an awesome idea, in some places this isn’t as easy to do.

“I also think the subprime borrowers who had absolutely no equity in their homes would do better just to walk away, save some money and buy a home for a much cheaper price. ”

In places like San Diego for example, home values have dropped so much many (if not all) of the people that bought in 2005-2006 owe MORE than the home is worth. They can’t sell without taking, in some cases a significant loss (50k+ some people are already looking at 200k loss in parts of San Diego). In order to sell the bank would have to approve a short sale (allow them to sell the house for less than they owe on the loan).

They can’t refinance because they owe more than their house is worth.

Will this help them? I don’t know. I need to read the exact plan approved in order to find out if they even qualify to be in group 4.

Sub-prime borrowers are just a part of the foreclosure mess. There are also Neg-AM borrowers (which is even worse. They are making interest only payments on their home. But not only that, they aren’t even paying all the interest every month! So let’s say the interest on their loan is $2000, but they only pay $1500. The rest, $500 is ADDED to their loan amount.)

This whole thing stinks, but I’m not really sure if the government’s plan is the right way to go about it. (actually I’m pretty sure it isn’t).

cialis overdoseon 12.08.07 at 10:14 am

oops! When I said “Awesome idea” I was talking about what you said in the quotes I posted. NOT the government plan :)

cialis overdoseon 12.08.07 at 2:10 pm

Yeah, what I mean is to just go into foreclosure and lose the house. That way they can save some money. From what I read only those who have less than 3% equity in their homes would qualify for the government plan. What is the point in continuing to milk these people?

cialis overdoseon 12.08.07 at 7:53 pm

One small point: I could be wrong, but I don’t think the federal government collects property taxes. Local governments do, but I don’t think they are heavily involved with the bailout.

cialis overdoseon 12.08.07 at 8:26 pm

yeah I think the local governments collect the taxes, but they’re all in cahoots with each other!

cialis overdoseon 12.12.07 at 1:41 pm

Hi, I have an adjustable rate I need to freeze. So, I’m off to buy a new SUV (Escalade or Quttro?) and a couple flat screen HDTVs and new leather sofa. I’m also having my kitchen totally made over in Stainless appliances and marble counters! Thank god for preapproved credit card offers or I couldn’t swing it. Do you think this will adequately wreck my FICO score so I qualify for the rate freeze? Thanks!

cialis overdoseon 12.12.07 at 2:53 pm

[...] The Baglady. And how about the subprime borrowers who will get to keep their homes under the plan? “These homeowners are just indentured servants to a gargantuan money-hungry force,” Baglady writes. “Their rates will be frozen for five years, but they will have to keep on paying [...]

cialis overdoseon 12.13.07 at 11:40 am

I’m not sure this isn’t much ado about nothing. Even absent government interference banks have an incentive to adjust loan terms so as not to force an account into foreclosure when the asset does not completely secure the loan. The group in question (over-extended credit, no equity) is precisely the group that banks would be willing to “amend” loans terms on. As long as the loss associated with amending the loan is less than the loss they would take on foreclosure the bank wins. Banks write down non-performing loans all the time – they try and get the most back they can, and then go and tighten up their lending standards so it doesn’t happen again.

The public nature of the deal has extra benefits for the gov’t and the banks. The Administration gets to look like it’s doing something, and hopefully avoids an S&L scale bailout. The banks get :

1) A relatively cheap default offer (the 2005 start date excludes the really cheap paper from 2002-2004)

2) Sends a clear signal to debtors who are in a bind and might qualify that they MUST stay current to qualify.

3) Some positive PR – “We’re trying to help”

4) Makes the process public, which hopefully offers enough hope to vulnerable debtors that home prices will recover to keep them hanging on, reducing the risk of a major crash.

The borrowers will take their lumps one way or another. Either in one big lump as a foreclosure, or struggle along under a heavy repayment plan and hope circumstances change. But that’s what happens when you speculate with your house.

cialis overdoseon 12.13.07 at 1:13 pm

I am a loan agent with a large national lender and although my livelyhood is dependant on the health of the Real Estate industry i am TOTALLY against any kind of government bail out for borrowers who were motivated by sheer avarice. I have been watching and in some cases even helping people get themselves into more and more debt for over 13 years now. No matter how much I councel borrowers on sound financial management; no matter how much they nod their heads in agreement as Im taking an application to consolidate their newly purchased cars and their tons of credit card debt, and I warn them about the dangers of getting in over their heads, now matter how many times they tell me they’ve learned their lesson this time, I still manage to see most of them every 3 to five years doing the exact same thing over and over again. It’s very sad and although I strongly believe that we all have to take personal responsability for our own actions and we are ultimately responsible for each of our own fates; I can’t help but to blame the Banks for creating their own mess. 7 years ago when some genius came up with the idea to lend people 100% of the value of their home and to do it using a variable product that had the potential for making your balance even higher (Negative Amortization) I knew this was the begining of the end. It didn’t take a scientist to see all this coming. Surely I’m not the only one who foresaw this mess, Im not that smart. I thought for sure the banks would recognize the error in their judgment and emmediately revert back to tighter guidlines, but my underestimation of corporate greed would prove me wrong. Anyway, the long and the short of it is that I have seen about 50% of the work force in my industry go by the wayside, and the rest of us are just hanging on by the skin of our teeth, sharpening our resume’s for that inevitable day when our office is finally closed. Sure there are the super agents of the world who make up about 5% of the industry and they are always telling you how attitude is the most important thing in sales, but more often than not I have found that upon close examination the real thing that keeps these super agents going is just plain GREED. That whole attitude of getting the loan through no matter what it takes, may be admirable to some, but to me, it’s just exactly what got us to where we are now. Don’t get me wrong sales people have to have lots of drive but above all else really great sales people put the needs and security of their clients first, the money is just a by- product of that. God help us.

cialis overdoseon 12.13.07 at 5:49 pm

[...] I don’t consider the homeowners who keep their homes in this plan to be winners. Sure, they get to… [...]

cialis overdoseon 12.10.08 at 7:36 pm

[...] year ago I wrote this article about the government’s plan to freeze mortgage rates and how ridiculous it was. I also [...]

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