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It is sad to know that many will lose their home. Yet, it was too silly to think that a 3-bedroom, 2-bath house should be prized anywhere above $500,000. Most of the speculators and the realtors with gimmics are to blame. And now, the dumb risk-takers will suffer and in about a year, those of us conservatives will have a chance to buy low.
there’s something fishy with some of them, e.g.
Address: 645 Bermuda, San Mateo
Last Sale Date: 05/20/2004
Last Sale Price: 1984091
Current Asking Price: 862000
Sold in 2002 for 485k, in 2004 for 1,984k? Now back at 862k?
Smells like FRAUD. The 862k is probably ‘realistic’, the 1,984k never was.
yes, I was pretty surprised at some of these numbers too. I really think that San Mateo County has a while to go until it hits bottom. So I am still renting. It’s not just 3 bedroom 2 baths that are over $500,000. It’s more like 680 square foot cottages/shacks are priced over $500,000. The last property on this list is an example of the madness here.
This article is stronger than the author realizes, because he is comparing prices the house sold for at it’s peak to asking prices now, n ot sold prices now. Most of those houses are not selling for the already reduced asking price and will need to go substnatially lower–I knew a lady here in florida who had no offers for two years as she kept doing little price cuts–when she slashed the price another 20 percent she sold, finally.
First, I am a woman and that’s why the blog is named The Baglady. Second, I am just comparing the asking prices to their last sold price. Some of these houses had higher selling prices at the peak. I do agree that it needs to go a lot lower.
“…It is sad to know that many will lose their home…” There is nothing sad about it, IMO. Actually I am very happy about it. It’s called Darwinism. Those idiots drove prices insanely high for everyone else, hopping for the greater fools to pay even more for their overpriced dumps later. The fact that they ended up being greater fools themself is only logical and just.
I think even though some of these home sellers are truly flippers some of them are just normal people who wanted to own a home. That’s why I didn’t title this article San Mateo Flippers in Trouble. It is unfortunate that some people did not calculate what they can reasonably afford and got sucked into sort of a mob mentality that permeated the world.
Great work. Thanks.
Should somebody who cannot or doesn’t care to calculate be able to buy a million dollar house? Is reading a few pages of your mortgage contract such an unreasonable requirement?
I don’t really believe that those people “did not calculate” most of those people have master degrees, most of them are very intelligent.
They consciously decided to indulge their desire to posses something the could not afford, so I say – screw them now. Nobody is going to break their legs for not paying back their loans, nobody is putting them into jail for that. They will walk away from their houses and rent for a few years. What’s a big deal?
They drove prices up for responsible buyers forcing them to rent and I didn’t hear anyone crying about that…
[...] So two weeks ago I started to look at San Mateo real estate in decline on Redfin. Today I did another scan of the San Mateo properties that have been listed on Redfin for less than 14 days. I found another 46 properties that have listing prices lower than their last selling prices. There were about 300 to 400 properties in San Mateo counties that has a Redfin age of 14 days or less, so that means 46 properties is a little more than 10% of all the new properties coming up for sale. After I looked through the properties it seems that at least a couple are old listings with new lower prices. Here are some highlights of these listings. [...]
Disclosure: I’m a realtor. I believe there should be compassion here. We’re talking about families. In my experience, people who bought homes and are now in a dire situation of having to sell have been caught in a somewhat unexpected turn of events. So many circumstances have conspired against them that they are now backed against a wall.
Hypothetical to explain my point:
1. They were qualified for a loan that no longer exists. The loan requirements have gotten much more restrictive. The parameters that allowed them to qualify to purchase initially are now not enough to allow them to refinance.
2. The value of the home has declined, also making them unable to refinance. The appraisal will not be calculated at a high enough price.
3. Their loans have gone from fixed to adjustable, adding another $1500+/- to their house payment.
4. Inventory has risen so much that their home is one of many as opposed to when they purchased, they themselves as buyers were one of many.
The factor that most determines the value of a house is what a willing buyer will pay for it and what a willing seller will sell for. I don’t believe there were any gimmicks or tricks. Money was cheap – it was very inexpensive to take out a loan – so much so that even folks that had the money to deposit on a home didn’t because it was less expensive to get it from the bank. There was a time when it was certainly a frenzy; homes were selling within a week. That is not normal.
I also believe that a comparison of one year is not enough time. Flipping is a recent phenomenon. Traditionally home ownership has been a purchase and hold proposition, not a purchase and immediate sell.
It’s only in recent years that people have looked at their home as a lottery ticket. In the past, the home has been a place to raise a family and possibly move up in 10 or so years. Hopefully it will return to being thought of as a safe place to live and enjoy life and not a way to buy a new car or finance that exotic vacation.
The Peninsula itself is an anomoly. We’re surrounded by water; a huge percentage of the land is reserved for parkland (something like 70%); the weather is incredible; jobs abundant; and land to build more homes in short supply.
My crystal ball is broken. I can’t say for sure what’s coming in the real estate market. But I can look at past history to get an idea. I’ve run the statistics many times in many ways. The cost of housing will continue to rise. There may be blips here and there – like we’re having now – but it’s temporary.
[...] statistics I gathered in this page, and if you missed any part of this series you can start reading here. Another update will be posted in two weeks. Finally, I will present to you my favorite photo of [...]
[...] It’s not just agents who are publicly criticizing buyers who were “stupid” enough to get into a subprime loan. A recent contribution by the Bag Lady drew critical, scathing comments by readers who were on the se… [...]
[...] some of the older reports. I examined the approximately 150 homes from the first two reports listed here and here and the findings are quite [...]
[...] listings. In October 2007 I started this series and I scoured all of San Mateo county and found only 102 home sellers in trouble. This means that in less than 8 months the number of home sellers in trouble rose 463%!! A lot [...]
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