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So, I am a pretty big fan of the blog where the blogger lists houses that are bought in the past two years and currently listed for lower than the last sale price. So I wondered if I could find some listings in San Mateo County that qualify as “in trouble”. A lot of people are saying that San Mateo County’s real estate is resistant to the current housing market and won’t ever fall, but after browsing Redfin’s San Mateo listings I found over 100 homes that are current asking prices less than their last selling price. I found a lot of interesting data through this exercise and I will share it here all week long. Today I will present the overall averages and the five homes with the greatest annualized percentage loss plus the five homes with the highest current price per square foot.

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I found a total of 102 homes in the San Mateo County that were last sold within the last 3 years and are currently selling for lower or equal to their last sale prices. The average amount of time from last sale date is 1.78 years. The average current asking price is $631,059 and the average last sale price is $703591. The average size of these homes is around 1200 square feet and the average annualized loss per year is about 6.76% if all of these homes sell for their current asking prices. Overall, they are still quite expensive and have an average per square foot price tag of $540.

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I calculated the annualized loss using 10/7/07 as the current date and assumed yearly interest compound. Four out of these five homes were bought less than a year ago, and that is probably why their annualized loss is so high. I know that the home at 2318 Flores St. is a short sale and it has been advertised for months.

Address:
Last Sale Date: 05/23/2007
Last Sale Price: 543099
Current Asking Price: 429000
Annualized Loss: -46.7%

Address:
Last Sale Date: 12/29/2006
Last Sale Price: 1250000
Current Asking Price: 888000
Annualized Loss: -35.8%

Address:
Last Sale Date: 07/24/2007
Last Sale Price: 688937
Current Asking Price: 649900
Annualized Loss: -24.7%

Address:
Last Sale Date: 06/21/2007
Last Sale Price: 476469
Current Asking Price: 439000
Annualized Loss: -24.2%

Address:
Last Sale Date: 05/20/2004
Last Sale Price: 1984091
Current Asking Price: 862000
Annualized Loss: -21.8%

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I think most of these homes belong in an episode of Dr. Housing Bubble’s Real Homes of Genius. Four of these homes are smaller than the condo I rent and the cost per square foot is more than some parts of Manhattan. The largest home in this list is a condo so there is no land premium. It is a condo in a good location, but it still seems to be quite overpriced. So here they are:

Address:
Current Asking Price: 889900
Annualized Loss: -0.7%
Size: 910 Square Feet
Price Per Square Foot: $978

Address:
Current Asking Price: 1599999
Annualized Loss: -16.5%
Size: 1911 Square Feet
Price Per Square Foot: $837

Address:
Current Asking Price: 850000
Annualized Loss: -8.9%
Size: 1030 Square Feet
Price Per Square Foot: $825

Address:
Current Asking Price: 649000
Annualized Loss: -0%
Size: 820 Square Feet
Price Per Square Foot: $791

Address:
Current Asking Price: 529000
Annualized Loss: -4.1%
Size: 680 Square Feet
Price Per Square Foot: $778

Tomorrow I will post the following: Cities with the Most Homes in Trouble, and The Least Expensive Homes by Price per Square Foot.

Related Posts











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buy cialis canada pharmacyon 10.08.07 at 9:07 pm

It is sad to know that many will lose their home. Yet, it was too silly to think that a 3-bedroom, 2-bath house should be prized anywhere above $500,000. Most of the speculators and the realtors with gimmics are to blame. And now, the dumb risk-takers will suffer and in about a year, those of us conservatives will have a chance to buy low.

buy cialis canada pharmacyon 10.08.07 at 10:22 pm

there’s something fishy with some of them, e.g.

Address: 645 Bermuda, San Mateo
Last Sale Date: 05/20/2004
Last Sale Price: 1984091
Current Asking Price: 862000

Sold in 2002 for 485k, in 2004 for 1,984k? Now back at 862k?

Smells like FRAUD. The 862k is probably ‘realistic’, the 1,984k never was.

buy cialis canada pharmacyon 10.08.07 at 11:45 pm

yes, I was pretty surprised at some of these numbers too. I really think that San Mateo County has a while to go until it hits bottom. So I am still renting. It’s not just 3 bedroom 2 baths that are over $500,000. It’s more like 680 square foot cottages/shacks are priced over $500,000. The last property on this list is an example of the madness here.

buy cialis canada pharmacyon 10.09.07 at 4:26 am

This article is stronger than the author realizes, because he is comparing prices the house sold for at it’s peak to asking prices now, n ot sold prices now. Most of those houses are not selling for the already reduced asking price and will need to go substnatially lower–I knew a lady here in florida who had no offers for two years as she kept doing little price cuts–when she slashed the price another 20 percent she sold, finally.

buy cialis canada pharmacyon 10.09.07 at 10:09 am

First, I am a woman and that’s why the blog is named The Baglady. Second, I am just comparing the asking prices to their last sold price. Some of these houses had higher selling prices at the peak. I do agree that it needs to go a lot lower.

buy cialis canada pharmacyon 10.09.07 at 1:03 pm

“…It is sad to know that many will lose their home…” There is nothing sad about it, IMO. Actually I am very happy about it. It’s called Darwinism. Those idiots drove prices insanely high for everyone else, hopping for the greater fools to pay even more for their overpriced dumps later. The fact that they ended up being greater fools themself is only logical and just.

buy cialis canada pharmacyon 10.09.07 at 5:09 pm

I think even though some of these home sellers are truly flippers some of them are just normal people who wanted to own a home. That’s why I didn’t title this article San Mateo Flippers in Trouble. It is unfortunate that some people did not calculate what they can reasonably afford and got sucked into sort of a mob mentality that permeated the world.

buy cialis canada pharmacyon 10.09.07 at 8:41 pm

Great work. Thanks.

buy cialis canada pharmacyon 10.10.07 at 10:53 am

Should somebody who cannot or doesn’t care to calculate be able to buy a million dollar house? Is reading a few pages of your mortgage contract such an unreasonable requirement?
I don’t really believe that those people “did not calculate” most of those people have master degrees, most of them are very intelligent.
They consciously decided to indulge their desire to posses something the could not afford, so I say – screw them now. Nobody is going to break their legs for not paying back their loans, nobody is putting them into jail for that. They will walk away from their houses and rent for a few years. What’s a big deal?
They drove prices up for responsible buyers forcing them to rent and I didn’t hear anyone crying about that…

buy cialis canada pharmacyon 10.21.07 at 7:44 pm

[...] So two weeks ago I started to look at San Mateo real estate in decline on Redfin. Today I did another scan of the San Mateo properties that have been listed on Redfin for less than 14 days. I found another 46 properties that have listing prices lower than their last selling prices. There were about 300 to 400 properties in San Mateo counties that has a Redfin age of 14 days or less, so that means 46 properties is a little more than 10% of all the new properties coming up for sale. After I looked through the properties it seems that at least a couple are old listings with new lower prices. Here are some highlights of these listings. [...]

buy cialis canada pharmacyon 10.22.07 at 12:05 pm

Disclosure: I’m a realtor. I believe there should be compassion here. We’re talking about families. In my experience, people who bought homes and are now in a dire situation of having to sell have been caught in a somewhat unexpected turn of events. So many circumstances have conspired against them that they are now backed against a wall.

Hypothetical to explain my point:
1. They were qualified for a loan that no longer exists. The loan requirements have gotten much more restrictive. The parameters that allowed them to qualify to purchase initially are now not enough to allow them to refinance.
2. The value of the home has declined, also making them unable to refinance. The appraisal will not be calculated at a high enough price.
3. Their loans have gone from fixed to adjustable, adding another $1500+/- to their house payment.
4. Inventory has risen so much that their home is one of many as opposed to when they purchased, they themselves as buyers were one of many.

The factor that most determines the value of a house is what a willing buyer will pay for it and what a willing seller will sell for. I don’t believe there were any gimmicks or tricks. Money was cheap – it was very inexpensive to take out a loan – so much so that even folks that had the money to deposit on a home didn’t because it was less expensive to get it from the bank. There was a time when it was certainly a frenzy; homes were selling within a week. That is not normal.

I also believe that a comparison of one year is not enough time. Flipping is a recent phenomenon. Traditionally home ownership has been a purchase and hold proposition, not a purchase and immediate sell.

It’s only in recent years that people have looked at their home as a lottery ticket. In the past, the home has been a place to raise a family and possibly move up in 10 or so years. Hopefully it will return to being thought of as a safe place to live and enjoy life and not a way to buy a new car or finance that exotic vacation.

The Peninsula itself is an anomoly. We’re surrounded by water; a huge percentage of the land is reserved for parkland (something like 70%); the weather is incredible; jobs abundant; and land to build more homes in short supply.

My crystal ball is broken. I can’t say for sure what’s coming in the real estate market. But I can look at past history to get an idea. I’ve run the statistics many times in many ways. The cost of housing will continue to rise. There may be blips here and there – like we’re having now – but it’s temporary.

buy cialis canada pharmacyon 11.19.07 at 3:26 am

[...] statistics I gathered in this page, and if you missed any part of this series you can start reading here. Another update will be posted in two weeks. Finally, I will present to you my favorite photo of [...]

buy cialis canada pharmacyon 12.12.07 at 5:39 pm

[...] It’s not just agents who are publicly criticizing  buyers who were “stupid” enough to get into a subprime loan.   A recent contribution by the Bag Lady drew critical, scathing comments by readers who were on the se… [...]

buy cialis canada pharmacyon 12.18.07 at 12:51 am

[...] some of the older reports. I examined the approximately 150 homes from the first two reports listed here and here and the findings are quite [...]

buy cialis canada pharmacyon 05.31.08 at 9:37 pm

[...] listings.  In October 2007 I started this series and I scoured all of San Mateo county and found only 102 home sellers in trouble.   This means that in less than 8 months the number of home sellers in trouble rose 463%!!  A lot [...]

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